Mr. Hatoyama, the Japanese Prime Minister, made a speech on Japan's mid-term target of 25% GHG (Global Greenhouse Gas = CO2) emission reduction vs.1990 by 2020 at the United Nation's Climate Change Summit held on September 22 in New York. (He included this issue in his speech at IOC on October 2 in appealing Tokyo as the venue for 2016 Olympic Games). He also advocated his initiative of providing to developing and emerging countries Japan's energy saving technologies and capital aid to help them drive global warming countermeasures.

His speech in English won great applause in the summit, which is probably the first time for a Japanese Prime Minister. Now, challenges lies ahead.

1. Background of Prime Minister Mr. Hatoyama's Speech

The target set by the former Prime Minister, Mr. Aso, was 15% reduction vs.2005 (8% reduction vs. 1990) so it is evident that Mr. Hatoyama's target is extremely aggressive (equivalent to 30% reduction vs. 2005). His intention was to take the initiative in the upcoming international negotiation settings by advocating aggressive target and supporting measures in his debut diplomacy setting in his own words. It symbolized and delivered strong message on the change in political administration and of his style of politics, which is "politicians instead of bureaucrats taking the initiative".

The target announced was the most aggressive among all participant countries, as is shown from the table below. (Source: September 23 Japanese article from Nikkei, Japan's leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics; translated by the author).

GHG Emission Reduction Target by 2020 of Developed Countries
(Some target are specified under specific condition such as "in the case which other countries advocate sufficient reduction target")

Country Name / Reduction Rate (%) / Standard Year / Availability of Purchasing Emission Quotas
Japan / 25 / 1990 / yes
The U.S. / 14 / 2005 / -
EU / 20 / - / 30 / 1990 / yes
Canada / 20 / 2006 / -
Russia / 10 - 15 / 1990 / -
Switzerland / 20 - 30 / 1990 / yes
Australia / 5 - 25 / 2000 / yes
* Composed by Nikkei based on documents on framework of the U.N. climate change agreement owned by the agreement offices

Prime Minister Mr. Hatoyama was careful in making his speech. He used the expression "if I would state comparing with 1990" instead of "vs. 1990", taking into consideration of the U.S. who had set the 2005 as the standard year in setting the target. He also was careful to avoid misunderstanding from other countries that Japan is prominent in presenting such an aggressive target. He did so by encouraging major GHG emission countries including the U.S., China and India to actively join in his initiative, advocating his Hatoyama initiatives including the principles below.

Hatoyama Initiatives
1) Public and private sectors of developed countries will contribute to additional capital aid.
2) Rules for measuring the effectiveness of aid will be developed.
3) Co-existence of capital aid and preservation of intellectual property right will be fulfilled.

2. Reactions From The International Community And Japan Opinion Leaders

The speech was highly evaluated and the overall reaction from the international community is positive from each standpoint.

The U.S. gave positive reaction backed up by President Obama's positive speech in the summit, who said that global warming is one of the U.S.'s focuses and he is resolved to take actions. He emphasized that both developed and developing countries need to take responsibility to achieve the target. He also showed his intention of reaching international consensus on this issue at CPO15 to be held in December in Copenhagen, Denmark. He advocated the need of making consensus among all countries including emerging countries, stating that the only solution is all major countries collaborate to take measures, while developing countries (that had been emitting global warming gasses) have responsibilities to initiate the discussion.

EU had been positive in activating trading GHG emission quotas among countries to reduce GHG emission globally, and therefore they highly evaluated Japan's target and now they would like to deepen collaboration with Japan and lead debate on this issue in the international community. Mr. Okada, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, had meetings with Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Sweden, the current chairperson of EU, and Spain, and they agreed on the importance of solving climate change issue and highly evaluated Japan's mid-term target. The Minister of Climate Change and Energy of Denmark also evaluated the aggressive target of Japan.

Reactions from developing and emerging countries are mixture. Emerging countries including China and India have been strengthening initiatives to reduce GHG in individual sectors such as generation of electricity. However, their consistent stance has been that it is the developed countries responsible for the past global warming that should commit to the aggressive reduction target to be achieved by 2020.

It is true that aggressive target triggers technological innovation and creation of new industry and employment, but the reaction from Japan so far has not been necessarily positive. This is because Mr. Hatoyama had not yet sufficiently explained to industries and related opinion leaders that are to bear the burden in accomplishing the target. Also, for them, whether emerging countries such as China would really participate in this international initiative of GHG emission reduction is still under question.

To achieve the target, industries would need to reduce 20-30% GHG emission from manufacturing plants, which would be a big burden. It is possible that industries with large GHG emission such as iron and steel would be forced to reduce its production, which could lead to drastic production shift from Japan to overseas. And if sufficient GHG emission reduction is not achieved, they would need to purchase GHG emission quotas from overseas, which are estimated to cost more than 1 trillion yen, according to a government official.

In the following article, upcoming challenges to achieve the target will be discussed.