Sunday, January 24, 2010 - Osaka, Japan

Nikkei, Japan's leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported on January 23 that according to the outlook of financial performance for fiscal year ending March 2010, China business is to be the driver for many automobile and machinery manufacturing companies. For Nissan and Komatsu, 40%-50% of consolidated operating profit is estimated to be generated from China business and profit by region for China is to be greater than those of developed countries. This shows that Chinese economy is driving recovery of company financial performance when demand of Japan, the U.S. and Europe continues to plunge. Having said that, some experts say that Chinese economy seems to be overheated and competition is getting more and more severe. China is a promising marketing but there are challenges/issues such as risk management and thorough cost reduction.

1. How China economy has been?

China economy has been revitalized with positive effect of the economy stimulation measures implemented by the Chinese government (approximately 53 trillion yen) in November 2008. Chinese economy has recovered to 2 digit growth for October - December 2009 and its presence has been enhancing in the world economy.

2. How have Japanese companies been benefiting from revitalized Chinese economy?

China has become the largest automobile market (unit base) in the world last year, and Japanese automobile companies also have been increasing their sales, in particular Nissan. Nissan was quicker than other Japanese companies in strengthening product lines of small cars and developing sales/distribution network, leading to approximately 750,000 unit sales (almost +40% from previous year) for 2009. Operating profit from China business is expected to reach 50-60 billion yen, which is almost half the consolidated operating profit. Nissan estimates to enjoy consolidated operating profit of 120 billion yen when Toyota is estimated to remain in red. Nissan is quicker in recovering its financial achievement by generating profit in growing marketing of China.

Component manufacturers are also benefitting from demand growth in China. NSK's business in the developed countries remains in low level and is expected to generate 60% - 70% of its consolidated operating profit from China business.

China Business Outlook of Japanese Automobile and Machinery Manufacturers
(Source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author)
Company Name / Operating Profit: % of China Business / Consolidated Operating Profit (billion yen) / Vs. Previous Year / Trend of Chinese Business
Nissan / Almost 50% / 120 / Returning to black / Quick in establishing sales distribution network, leading to sales growth of almost 40% for 2009
Honda / +40% / 155 / +13% / Strong sales of Accord in cities on the coast
Komatsu / About 40% / 72 / -53% / Strong hydraulic shovel business, growth by 30%, overwhelming Japan business
Furukawa Electric / +25% / 10 / +3% / With strong infrastructure investment, high voltage cable in full production in China and increase in business growth
NSK / 60% / - 70% / 8 / -64% / Bearing business grows targeting automobile and industry machinery companies, when business in Japan, the U.S. and Europe continues to plunge

Regarding machinery manufacturers, sales of China for Komatsu and Hitachi Construction Machinery are approximately 20% of worldwide business, which is greater than Caterpillar. Reducing cost by manufacturing locally, Komatsu's operating profit from Chinese business is almost 40% of worldwide business, and Komatsu is quicker than Caterpillar in recovering its financial performance.

More companies in other industries are benefitting from growing Chinese market. For example, Toto's business of luxurious toilets (using luxurious materials etc.) is strong in China. Their China business is expected to be in black when Japan and other business are expected to remain in red. Operating profit from China business is to reach approximately 30%, the biggest worldwide.

3. What are the anxieties and risks of China economy and business?

Chinese economy seems to be overheated, according to some experts. It is prominent that increase in export of steel material to Chinese market is contributing to consolidated financial performance for iron and steel giants. However, many of the executives in this industry are cautious, commenting that "if credit squeeze measure at to be taken (to prevent overheating), the current strong steel material market trend in China may well change".

Honda is enjoying strong sales of Accord in China but profit of joint venture business in China is to remain the same with previous year. It is because price erosion is extreme in China, when each company strengthens production and sales organization. As proportion of Chinese business increase, necessity of risk management for business fluctuation and increase in competition in this market increases.